An expectation operator for belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer theory*

ABSTRACT

The main contribution of this paper is a new definition of expected value of belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory of evidence. Our definition shares many of the properties of the expectation operator in probability theory. Also, for Bayesian belief functions, our definition provides the same expected value as the probabilistic expectation operator. A traditional method of computing expected of real-valued functions is to first transform a D–S belief function to a corresponding probability mass function, and then use the expectation operator for probability mass functions. Transforming a belief function to a probability function involves loss of information. Our expectation operator works directly with D–S belief functions. Another definition is using Choquet integration, which assumes belief functions are credal sets, i.e. convex sets of probability mass functions. Credal sets semantics are incompatible with Dempster's combination rule, the center-piece of the D–S theory. In general, our definition provides different expected values than, e.g. if we use probabilistic expectation using the pignistic transform or the plausibility transform of a belief function. Using our definition of expectation, we provide new definitions of variance, covariance, correlation, and other higher moments and describe their properties.     

采动覆岩卸荷膨胀累积效应

地下煤层开采引起的岩层运动是一系列安全和环境问题的根源,研究采动岩层运动规律是安全、高效、绿色开采的重要基础。通过对岩层运动过程的研究,揭示了采动覆岩卸荷膨胀累积效应及其对岩层运动规律的影响机制。研究表明:采动覆岩经历了卸荷膨胀与再压实的动态过程。受关键层结构控制,上覆岩层由下向上成组破断运动,关键层破断前,阻断了上覆载荷向下方岩层的传递,导致其因卸荷而产生膨胀,包括碎胀与弹性膨胀。随着关键层破断高度增加,覆岩卸荷高度同步增大,因卸荷而膨胀的岩层总厚度不断增大;同时卸荷煤岩也受到已破断关键层载荷的压实作用,从而造成覆岩卸荷膨胀总量的不断变化。将这种覆岩卸荷膨胀总量随覆岩卸荷高度动态变化的现象定义为采动覆岩卸荷膨胀累积效应,进而建立了理论模型,并通过淮北海孜煤矿巨厚火成岩下采煤覆岩裂隙实测进行了验证。结果表明,采动覆岩卸荷膨胀累积效应对采动岩层运动规律产生了重要影响,如影响覆岩关键层下离层量,影响覆岩关键层贯通破断的高度,影响不同开采条件的地表下沉系数等。采动覆岩卸荷膨胀累积效应改变了对离层存在形式的传统认识,该效应的存在导致关键层下最大离层量一般小于采高的10%,覆岩可注浆充填空间并非传统认识上的“离层区”,而主要是注浆充填压力“压实”作用下将覆岩卸荷累积膨胀所转化出的那部分空间,该发现指导了覆岩隔离注浆充填绿色开采技术的创新研发及其在建筑物压煤开采中的成功实践。     

Pregnancy by Assisted Reproductive Technology Is Associated with Shorter Telomere Length in Neonates

Telomere length (TL) influences the development of lifestyle-related diseases, and neonatal TL may influence their prevalence. Various factors have been reported to affect neonatal TL. Although the fetus is exposed to multiple conditions in utero, the main factors affecting the shortening of neonatal TL are still not known. In this study, we sought to identify factors that influence fetal TL. A total of 578 mother-newborn pairs were included for TL analysis. TL was measured in genomic DNA extracted from cord blood samples using quantitative PCR. The clinical factors examined at enrollment included the following intrauterine environmental factors: maternal age, assisted reproductive technology (ART) used, body mass index (BMI), gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), maternal stress, smoking, alcohol consumption, preterm delivery, small-for-gestational-age, neonatal sex, and placental weight. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to verify the relationship between neonatal TL and these clinical factors. The median neonatal TL to single-copy gene ratio was 1.0. Pregnancy with ART was among the 11 factors associated with shorter neonatal TL. From multiple regression analysis, we determined that neonatal TL was significantly shorter for pregnancies in the ART group than in the other groups. We conclude that pregnancy with ART is associated with shorter neonatal TL.     

伞帽用高铬铸铁在热强碱腐蚀环境下的磨损分析

针对氧化铝行业中常用的Cr28和Cr20高铬铸铁伞帽在相同工况条件下的磨损机理进行分析,并对比研究了实际生产中两种失效材料的成分、组织及性能。结果表明,伞帽部件在高温强碱腐蚀条件下受到外界冲刷时,磨损量由微切削磨损与变形磨损这两种机制共同决定。含铬量较高的Cr28高铬铸铁,其冲刷和抗腐蚀磨损性能均优于Cr20高铬铸铁。伞帽服役寿命主要受浆料和表层的铸铁材料两大因素影响。两种试验材料经淬火+回火处理后,基体组织中主要为回火马氏体+M₇C₃型碳化物+少量残留奥氏体,其中含铬量较高的Cr28高铬铸铁中共晶碳化物含量更高,且分布更加弥散,其平均硬度值为64.0 HRC,高于Cr20高铬铸铁的60.2 HRC。最终确定Cr28高铬铸铁作为伞帽材质更能满足氧化铝生产及设备检修周期的需要。     

张庄铁矿高阶段矿房切割天井施工工艺试验

张庄铁矿设计采矿方法为大直径深孔阶段空场嗣后充填法。为了最大化发挥采矿设备性能，降低采切工程量，提高回采效率，通过实施一系列技术攻关，实现了将采矿阶段高度由原来的60 m提高到90 m。而作为最初爆破回采的自由面及爆破补偿空间，切割天井施工工艺为影响高阶段矿房爆破回采效果的关键因素，施工质量的优劣，直接影响矿房爆破回采生产作业能否顺利进行，而二次处理在增加施工成本的同时将带来安全隐患。张庄铁矿在面临可参考的成熟经验较少的情况下，结合现场可用的作业条件采取了对比试验的方法，在安全、技术及经济多方面综合分析比较下，确定了最终方案，为张庄铁矿安全稳定生产奠定了基础，同时研究成果可为大型地下矿山生产实践提供一定的参考。     

Extruded meat alternatives made from Maillard-reacted beef bone hydrolysate and plant proteins: part I – Effect of moisture content

This study investigated the effects of moisture content (MC) on the physicochemical properties of extruded meat alternatives made from Maillard-reacted beef bone hydrolysate and plant proteins. Samples were extruded at 170 °C (maximum barrel temperature), at 3.6 kg h⁻¹ (liquid feed rate) and at 1.8, 2.2, 2.6 and 3.0 kg h⁻¹ (dry feed rates) to obtain MC of 60%MC, 56%MC, 52%MC and 49%MC, respectively. Meat alternatives at 52%MC showed the greatest degree of texturisation. However, meat alternatives at 49%MC were the closest in terms of both textural and microstructural properties to reference sample, boiled chicken breast. Results from protein solubility suggested that a large amount of aggregated proteins were associated with hydrogen bonds, while disulphide bonds were the main contributor in the formation of fibrous structure in meat alternatives. Results showed that the change in MC as process parameter played an important role in the formation of fibrous structure in extruded meat alternatives.     

铋精矿加压氧化氨浸高效分离铜、硫和铋

针对湖南柿竹园铋精矿火法冶炼过程中存在的成本高、低浓度SO₂和散烟排放污染环境、有价金属综合回收率低等问题, 以柿竹园铋精矿为原料, 提出了加压氧化氨浸分离铋与铜、硫的新工艺, 研究了氨水加入量、浸出温度、浸出时间、浸出压力及浸出液固比等因素对铜、硫、铋浸出率的影响。在氨水用量1.8 mL/g_铋精矿、液固比4∶1、釜压2.8 MPa、浸出温度160 ℃、浸出时间5 h、搅拌速度600 r/min的优化工艺条件下, 铜、硫浸出率分别达93.57%和92.87%, 铋不浸出并以氧化铋形态全部入渣, 实现了铜、硫与铋的高效分离。     

碳酸盐岩裂缝性储层常规测井评价方法

哈萨克斯坦K油田石炭系KT-Ⅱ段储层为开阔台地相中低孔、特低渗灰岩储层，裂缝对改善储层的渗流能力至关重要，前人研究的利用常规测井资料评价碳酸盐岩储层裂缝的方法由于受裂缝产状、饱和度、泥浆侵入深浅等多方面因素的影响，存在确定性差、容易误判的缺陷。基于研究区目的层段有限的取心和电成像测井资料，结合孔隙型储层和裂缝-孔隙型储层测井响应特征，提出了利用补偿中子确定基块岩石电阻率与基块声波时差，再比较二者与深侧向电阻率、声波时差的差异特征，进而综合识别储层不同产状裂缝发育段，最后建立了裂缝孔隙度、次生孔隙度、裂缝渗透率、总渗透率等储层参数的测井解释模型，实现了利用常规测井资料对碳酸盐岩油藏储层的裂缝识别及参数定量评价。该方法应用的测井综合评价成果与取心物性分析、生产动态情况能够更好地匹配，为该类油藏的合理高效开发提供了依据。     

Ethics,society, and technology: A Confucian role ethics perspective

This essay provides a very brief overview of Confucian ethics that focuses on the role-based morality. It compares Confucian ethics with two dominant schools of thought in Western ethics deontology and consequentialism. This essay then discusses how Confucian ethics provides a unique way to think about social and political issues such as how the political leaders are selected and evaluated, the ethical justification of political legitimacy, the prioritization of economic, social, and cultural rights over other rights, and moral egalitarianism. Finally, this essay explores the ways in which Confucian ethics serves as a useful intellectual resource for examining the issues arising from the ethical assessment of (emerging) technologies and the professional formation of engineers. The Appendix of this essay includes some teaching resources that instructors can employ to teach students about ethics, society, and technology from a Confucian role ethics perspective.     

信息技术在医院病案统计中的应用

伴随着我国综合实力的不断提升,信息技术获得了突飞猛进的发展,如今,医疗改革如火如荼地进行,医院的信息管理工作同以往相比较也实现了极大的发展。病案统计工作是指相关工作人员对医院中患者的信息进行全面统计,若是这项工作完成得足够出色,会给医院后续的信息查询工作带来诸多方便和快捷,也能够在某种程度上使医院管理效率和质量实现一定幅度的提升。因此,将信息技术和医院的病案工管理工作进行密切结合,就成为病案管理人员应当重点思考的问题。病案统计工作是医院管理工作中的一个重点环节,病案统计结果能够为医院整体绩效带来十分深远的影响。因此,投入更多时间和精力来提高对这项工作的重视,显得十分关键和重要。文章对信息技术在医院病案统计中的应用展开了分析。